Business Analysis — Rivera Heating & Air

• Owner(s): Marco Rivera
• Started: 2026-07-02 · Last updated: 2026-07-02
• Sources processed:
• 2026-07-02 — Coffee chat, ~40 min (notes / rough transcript)

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At-a-glance summary

Provisional total: 24 / 80 · 6 of 8 scored · updated 2026-07-02

#	Area	Score	Conf.	Gist
8.1	Strategy / Planning	3	low	sets a revenue target but no written plan; "keep meaning to… never do"
8.2	Execution	2	high	55, 60-hr weeks, no vacation in 3 yrs — "working IN it, not ON it"
8.3	Sales	9	high	tracking ahead of $2.4M target, 60%+ close, turns work away in July
8.4	Marketing	5	medium	22-yr word-of-mouth name; fine while slammed but "no real engine"
8.5	Talent / Org Dev't	3	high	9 techs, "half I'm babysitting," 2 no-shows, no training program
8.6	Operations	2	high	whiteboard scheduling, all through him — chaos when he's out
8.7	Finance	unknown	—	not discussed — go ask
8.8	IP: Tech / Methods / Models	unknown	—	not discussed — go ask
Total		24 / 80		2 unknown

• Lowest cluster: 8.2 Execution + 8.6 Operations, both at 2.
• Key thread: (none yet — thin conversation; firm up Finance & IP next, see "Still thin" below.)

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Business Area Scoring (§8.1–8.8) · scale 1–10 · ideal total 64–80

Machine proposes a score + evidence; Nate sets the authoritative number. A score marked 🔒 is Nate's — the machine updates its own proposal beside it but never overwrites the locked number.

Provisional total: 24 across 6 of 8 areas (2 still unknown).

8.1 — Strategy / Planning · Direction

• Score: 3 / 10 (proposed · confidence: low)
• Evidence:
• Sets a top-line revenue target ("set a target of 2.4 this year") — so some goal-setting exists — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• But everything runs on instinct/in his head; "I keep meaning to… but never do." No sign of any strategic planning document, let alone one updated monthly. — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Go ask: Do you have any written business plan or strategy doc? If so, when did you last update it — and does it actually guide decisions, or sit in a drawer?

8.2 — Execution · Direction

• Score: 2 / 10 (proposed · confidence: high)
• Evidence:
• "I thought by now I'd be working ON the business not IN it. I'm 55, I work 60 hours a week, haven't taken a real vacation in three years. My wife's on me about it." — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• The business does not afford him the time or lifestyle he expected — a direct hit on this area's core question. — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Go ask: (confidence high — no go-ask needed; revisit if he changes his hours/role.)

8.3 — Sales · Income

• Score: 9 / 10 (proposed · confidence: high)
• Evidence:
• Revenue $1.6M → $2.1M last year; target $2.4M this year and "tracking a little ahead." — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• "sales aren't the issue… we turn work away in July." Quote close rate "60-something percent." — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Go ask: (confidence high.)

8.4 — Marketing · Income

• Score: 5 / 10 (proposed · confidence: medium)
• Evidence:
• Leads come from 22 years of word-of-mouth reputation in Waukesha; minimal spend ("some Google stuff my nephew set up"). — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Adequate right now only because they're slammed; "if summer ever slows down I don't have a real engine for it." No systematic lead-gen — fragile and seasonal. — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Go ask: Where would leads come from if the phone stopped ringing? Any tracking of cost-per-lead or where jobs originate?

8.5 — Talent / Org Dev't · Systems

• Score: 3 / 10 (proposed · confidence: high)
• Evidence:
• 9 techs + 2 office. "Half my techs are great, the other half I'm babysitting." Two no-call-no-shows last month. — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• No training program — "new guys just ride along with a senior guy." Knows some aren't right for the company but keeps them for the bodies in peak season. — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Multi-part read: right job mixed, right for company partly no (own admission), trained for the future no (no program) → low band.
• Go ask: (confidence high — the shape is clear. When building the fix later, ask which specific roles/people he'd change if season weren't a constraint.)

8.6 — Operations · Systems

• Score: 2 / 10 (proposed · confidence: high)
• Evidence:
• "Everything runs through me." Scheduling is a whiteboard + dispatcher Nancy; "if I'm out, it's chaos." — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• June: he was sick, two jobs double-booked, one customer missed entirely. "No real systems." — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Go ask: (confidence high.)

8.7 — Finance · Controls

• Score: unknown (no usable evidence)
• Evidence:
• Not discussed — "Didn't get into his books, his cash position" (ran out of time). Revenue is known but says nothing about cash flow, reserves, or buying power. — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Go ask: Are you cash-flow positive every month? Do you have ~6 months of operating reserve? If an opportunity showed up (a truck, an acquisition, a hire), could you fund it?

8.8 — IP: Tech / Methods / Models · Controls

• Score: unknown (no usable evidence)
• Evidence:
• Not discussed — didn't get to "whether he's got any proprietary process." — [coffee chat, 2026-07-02]
• Go ask: Is there anything unique in how Rivera does the work — a method, a checklist, a niche, a brand asset — that a competitor couldn't easily copy? Anything you could package, promote, or protect?

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Still thin — the agenda for next conversation

• 8.7 Finance (unknown) — cash-flow positive monthly? 6-month reserve? buying power for an opportunity?
• 8.8 IP / Tech / Methods / Models (unknown) — anything proprietary he can package, promote, or protect?
• 8.1 Strategy / Planning (low confidence) — is there any written plan, and does it actually guide decisions?
• 8.4 Marketing (medium) — where would leads come from if the phone went quiet; any lead tracking?

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Company Profile — not built yet

7-Stage Evaluation (1–7) — not built yet

Owner Profile (1 of 4) — not built yet

Issues & Wishes — Magic Wand top 3 — not built yet

Business Impact Table — downside vs. upside, top-3 money on the table — not built yet

Business Discovery Statement — not built yet

Session Closure (Take Away / Action / Forward) — not built yet